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Riverine Disputes 1


                                         The Nile. Source: (Britanica,2020)



The issue of shared use of key river basins is particularly pertinent in Africa. Over 90% of the Continent’s surface freshwater resources are located in river basins and lakes which cross national borders(World Bank,2020). This blogpost will explore current debates over increased upstream development of water projects in Ethiopia, which is especially strongly opposed by downstream users of the Nile in Egypt. I shall asses the importance of the Nile to both regions, then further asses each side’s respective claims regarding the dispute.


Ethiopia


85% of the Nile’s water passes through Ethiopia (Blue Nile), yet only 1% of this water is utilised by the Ethiopian agriculture sector, even though it makes up 65% of the country’s total water resources (Brookings,2020). Ethiopia is a country which has long suffered from food security. It has had a structural food deficit since 1980s. In 2000, 57% of Ethiopians consumed less than the recommended daily calorie allowance of 2,100 per day(Dfid,2020). This situation is aggravated by continued population growth (doubling from 23 to 46 million between 1960-1980) and is currently over 96 million. As a result, the per-capita landholding of farmers has shrunk from 02.8 to 0.1 hectares(Dfid,2020). Further, Ethiopia’s climate is becoming increasingly unpredictable. Temperatures on the Horn of Africa are projected to increase by between 1-3°C from 2000 to 2030 which may reduce cereal yields by up to 30%(IPCC,2012). Within the last thirty years, Ethiopia has experienced 3 mass famines, with the 1984-85 famine leading to 1.2 million deaths(Dfid,2020). It is no wonder that Ethiopians believe that greater access to the Nile’s waters would lead to a better agricultural position for the country. Large-scale irrigation projects such as the Grand Renaissance Dam have been seen as a solution.  Construction of this dam began in 2011 and it is expected to cost $4.8 billion(Chen,2014). This should generate HEP in excess of 17,000 Gwhs a year - vital for a low-income country that desperately needs energy (Handiso,2017). It will also provide a 74million cubic metre reservoir (Chen,2014). This is projected to increase fish catch in Lake Tana by 7000 tonnes(Tseguy,2017). Further, crucially, it will allow the country to increase its irrigated area by 500,000 ha, increasing total irrigation area of Ethiopia by an impressive 350%(Water Tech,2020).  Although as last weeks blog shows, these claims are often not fulfilled. 

 

Egypt

 

Egypt is one of the world’s most water-scarce countries, the Water Stress Index (2011) noted it as the 9th most water scare country worldwide. The vast majority of its water use is dependent on the Nile and this has been the case for 5 milenia, with 85% of this water use being taken up by Agriculture (MWRI,2014). North Africa receives just 3% of the Continent’s rainfall, and thus rained irrigation is simply unattainable in many areas.  Egypt’s population has grown from 14 million in 1927 to over 114 million today, which has drastically changed the resources needed to supply sufficient food for the population(Oestigard,2012).  Egypt objects to projects such as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam, because, during the 15 year filling period, it is expected to decrease water flow and thus irrigation output of the Nile in Egypt by 12-25 %. This could decrease irrigated land in Upper Egypt by 30% El-Nashar,2017) .  Furthermore, HEP energy production along the Egyptian nile will decrease by 25% (El-Nashar,2017) . It is further expected to increase evapotranspiration losses from the Nile by 5%, which in turn reduces the flow of water downstream, and can increase salinity downstream, leading to negative effects on crop production (El-Nashar,2017) .  It should be noted though, that Egypt are greatly reliant on their own dam situated within the Nile for agriculture production. The Aswan dam built in 1978, is seen as  arguably Africa’s most successful Dam. It Increased the number of crop seasons from 1-3 for 420,000 hectares of Egyptian land (Yohe,2007).  Further, the total area of land Egypt has under irrigation has increased by a third (840,000ha) as a result of the Aswan dam. Representing 140 million USD worth of agriculture revenue annually(Biswas,2010)!







                                                   Aswan Dam:Source:(Britanica,2020)

















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